Something to remember:

“Not everything that happens happens for a reason. But everything that survives, survives for a reason.”

Week Ahead

Crypto Market Cap: $1.265T // BTC Dominance: 46.7%

What’s driving markets?

• Quiet week coming up for Macro. Equity earnings season and better-than expected inflation data from last week’s CPI are driving traditional markets

• Volume remains concentrated in Bitcoin ahead of key ETF approval dates

• BTC continues to range between 30-31k

• Decision in Ripple case may give large-cap alts room to breathe as speculators gain confidence they will not be ruled securities

• DOJ dumping Silk Road bitcoins 

• Speculators front-running prospective BTC spot ETF flows

Catalysts

• Tuesday 7/18 @8:30AM: US Retail Sales

• Thursday 7/20 @8:30AM: Initial Jobless Claims

Major Headlines

Ripple (XRP) wins crucial decision against SEC in case of whether sales of XRP were unregistered security sales. Coinbase, Kraken then moved quickly to re-list XRP. The price of XRP spiked nearly 100% before settling around $0.74 (~60% gain) after markets fully processed the news. The reality is that there remains a prolonged legal process before a definitive resolution is reached. As of this decision, Ripple is still on the hook for roughly $728 million in institutional XRP sales that were deemed unregistered securities– yet markets clearly viewed it as a big win.

GC Jim’s take:

• Decision as it stands was reasoned poorly by a lightweight judge

• SEC to appeal immediately to 2nd circuit, likely to win

• Timeline for appeal arguments 10+ months

• No impact on Coinbase case regardless of outcome

• Crucial question remains whether Ripple executives “aided and abetted” sale of securities

Multichain Bridge has shut down after its CEO was taken into custody by Chinese police. On July 13th, on-chain analysts began to notice large outflows from the popular crypto bridge. Originally suspected to be a hack or exploit, it was soon revealed by the Multichain team that CEO, Zhaojun, had been taken into custody by Chinese police. On July 14th, the Multichain team published a sequence of events and announced their intention to cease operations. It is unknown whether Zhaojun is still in custody. Total Value Locked in the Multichain contracts has plummeted from over $1.22B to less than $150M at time of writing

• Fantom (FTM) dealt crushing blow by Multichain situation

• Stark reminder that operating crypto firms from within mainland China is still dangerous Brief on China’s history of ‘banning crypto’.

The DOJ transferred 9800 Silk Road BTC to Coinbase (~$300m) In the latest of the US government’s intended sale of the BTC seized from James Zhong, a Silk Road affiliate currently serving a one-year sentence. News of the transfer spooked markets, as the government is expected to sell via TWAP over the course of the week.

• The US government remains one of the largest holders of BTC

• DOJ has a history of wasting money as they liquidate their holdings

HarrypotterObamaSonic10Inu (ticker: BITCOIN) continues to defy logic, climbing to a market cap of $40m at time of writing. This particular meme coin community has leaned asHarrypotterObamaSonic10Inu (ticker: BITCOIN) continues to defy logic, climbing to a market cap of $40m at time of writing. This particular meme coin community has leaned as

Research Content

• Hasu returns with a new episode of his podcast Uncommon Core (previously cohosted with Su Zhu of 3AC)

• Synthetix founder announces new frontend project Infinex

• Coinbase’s L2 “Base” is open for builders

• Rodeo Finance exploited for 480 ETH

• Uniswap V4 incentives & design analysis

• Breaking down sequencers

• Google Play store will allow NFTS in apps and games

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